ABSTRACT
This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using Error Correction Models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.
ABSTRACT
Cattle is one of the main items in the Brazilian productive guideline and an important export product. During the covid-19 pandemic, the price of beef occupied a prominent position in agricultural sector analyzes due to the prices increases. The objective of this research is to observe the national production behavior, exports, and domestic supply. Therefore, a domestic supply forecast was made for January 2021 to December 2022 (24 months). Based on the results obtained, it was found that the beefs supply available to the Brazilian market will not present an expressive upward behavior that compensates the evolution in beef export to international markets. Thus, a shift in the price of beef in the domestic market to higher levels may be observed.
ABSTRACT
Mediante el análisis de la estructura productiva de México en 1980 y 2013, este trabajo explora si el estímulo al mercado interno puede complementar el dinamismo del sector externo a fin de alcanzar un proceso de crecimiento continuo y de desarrollo en una economía altamente integrada al mercado internacional. La metodología empleada es una extensión del modelo insumo-producto y el análisis de redes;en particular, el concepto de sectores verticalmente integrados es relevante para llegar a las conclusiones. Los resultados demuestran que el estímulo al mercado interno puede ser una estrategia complementaria al fomento del sector exportador para impulsar el crecimiento y el desarrollo económico.Alternate :By analyzing Mexico's productive structure in the 1980s and 2013, this paper explores whether promoting the domestic market may complement the dynamism of the external sector and achieve a process of sustained growth and development for an economy highly integrated into the international market. The methodology applied is an extension of the input-output model and network analysis;in particular, the concept of vertically integrated sectors is a major feature to reach conclusions. The results show that stimulating the domestic market can be a complementary strategy for promoting the export sector to boost growth and economic development.
ABSTRACT
For hotel business to survive during COVID-19 Pandemic requires to conduct major adjustment in almost all aspects of operation. This qualitative study was conducted to assess the operation adiustment that may affect the hotel brand. Data was gathered from respondents comprising managers and decision-makers of 5-to-3-star hotels in Bali, Indonesia that remain open during the pandemic, using online survey and interview. The results show that during the pandemic, hotels have made major operation adjustment to survive;whilst, maintaining the same quality standard, applying meticulous CHSE (Cleanliness Health Safety Environment) protocol, and keeping the customers informed through online promotion platforms regarding the hotel's condition being ready to host guests. The adjustment made includes reducing operation cost, shifting target market into domestic market to maintain cash flow to cover operation, adjusting the rate and prices to adapt the weaker customer's buying power, applying flexible booking and refund conditions, human resource policy and planning rearrangement, reducing the quantity of room offered and menu list items in Food and Beverage outlets. The hotel business resilient was owned to the professionalism of hoteliers, thus hotel rebranding is not required as the quality of the products offered is the same with those before the pandemic;at post-pandemic, it would be simply sifting the target market back to pre-pandemic.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 has caused a dramatic fall in international tourism demand. Destinations within countries have revised their promotion strategies, intensifying the competition for the domestic market, less affected by mobility restrictions. This paper proposes a contest theory model for characterizing this new context. Two types of destinations, coastal (sun and sand) and rural, compete for the existing demand in terms of promotion spending. The competition is driven by two main factors: the relative strategic advantage of each destination in the international and domestic markets and the strategic value given to each market. The pandemic has likely modified these factors, reducing the traditional advantage of coastal destinations and shifting the valuation towards the domestic market. According to the model, these changes may increase competition for the domestic market, with destinations rising promotion spending even in a context of reduced demand, which is consistent with the empirical evidence.
ABSTRACT
Under the goal of a “new development pattern”, it is of great practical significance to accurately identify the economic growth effect of fiscal and tax policies. This paper constructs a TVP-FAVAR model to measure the economic effects of China’s fiscal and tax policies at the aggregate and structural levels. The results show that the reduction in total tax has a positive effect on real variables such as output and consumption;especially at the present stage, the promotion effect of total tax reduction on economic growth is relatively strong, but the stimulation effect on price is relatively weak. Further, the tax structure in which the ratio of direct tax to total tax increases and the ratio of indirect tax to total tax decreases is more conducive to the increase in output and consumption, and will not strongly stimulate the rise of price level. Therefore, at this stage, China should continue to vigorously implement the tax reduction policy and ensure the continuity of the tax reduction policy. At the same time, we should continue to optimize the tax structure and give better play to the regulatory role of fiscal and tax policies in income redistribution, so as to achieve the goal that fiscal and tax policies help build a “new development pattern” and promote high-quality economic development.
ABSTRACT
In recent years, the market pattern of infant formula in China has changed dramatically. The market share of domestic infant formula has exceeded that of imports. The essence of the market share change of domestic and foreign brands is the change of consumers’ brand preferences. To explore which factors affected consumers’ brand preferences, our study conducted a qualitative research method based on the grounded theory, through in-depth interviews with 60 mothers in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, systematically identifying the factors which affect consumers’ brand preferences for infant formula, which allowed us to establish a theoretical model for them. We found that product characteristics and external environmental factors could directly affect the formation of consumers’ brand preferences, or indirectly through the two intermediary factors of buyers and users. In addition, in the consumption of infant formula, buyers and users were separated, and infants, as actual users, were an important factor that could not be ignored in brand preference.
ABSTRACT
Global financial transactions as well as information and communications technology services have also declined significantly.6 Moreover, according to the recent United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) assessment, which is actually based on conservative assumptions, the COVID-19 outbreak will cause global foreign direct investments (service mode 3) to shrink by 5–15% in 2020.7 The demand side has also been affected as consumers around the globe are unwilling at the moment to spend their money. In particular, some countries have decided to establish export controls over certain medical products (eg medical ventilators, certain drugs, personal protective equipment) in the form of temporary export bans or the addition of licensing/authorisation requirements.8 Other countries, concerned with the security of their food supplies, have introduced export restrictions over specific agricultural products, and these decisions have generated genuine concerns about potential food shortages in the global market in the second part of the year.9 The problem appears sufficiently serious that it has led to a joint statement by the Directors-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Health Organization and the World Trade Organization (WTO), in which they noted that “uncertainty about food availability can spark a wave of [additional] export restrictions, creating a shortage on the global market”. [...]a number of states have recently removed or suspended some trade controls. [...]Argentina has suspended its anti-dumping duties on imports of certain medical products from China, while Canada has temporarily eliminated tariffs for specific categories of products if they are imported by public health agencies, hospitals and testing sites, or for use by first-response organisations.11 The aim of all of these measures is to ensure that there are sufficient supplies to domestic markets (either by decreasing exports or increasing imports).
ABSTRACT
The Indian textile industry has experienced a downswing in exports, an upsurge in production costs, and low efficiency because of demonetization and Goods and Service Tax (GST) headwinds. The Covid-19 pandemic has further aggravated the situation. Though the government has taken various steps to support the sector, evaluating the financial position of a textile firm is still important as it depicts the true picture of the firm's financial status, i.e., distressed or not distressed. The sample consists of textile firms listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during 2010-2020. This study predicts the financial situation of textile firms using the Altman Z-score and also the relationship between the Altman Z-score and the market value of firms in India's textile sector using panel regression model. The findings suggest that many of the firms are distressed and the Z-score significantly impacts their market value. Further, only retained earnings to the total assets is significantly associated with the market value of firms.
ABSTRACT
The article discusses the state of agriculture in the context of a pandemic, as well as factors that influenced the strengthening of the competitive advantages of the industry. The study compared indicators and factors of agricultural competitiveness in 2020 in comparison with the previous period. The analysis showed that agriculture was less affected by restrictions due to the coronavirus than other sectors of the economy, therefore, the main trends in production and the formation of gross value added remained during the pandemic. The study noted that a 3.5% decrease in real money income of the population in 2020 affected the purchasing power of income and the structure of consumption of certain types of food, which could lead to a redistribution of production resources. The article notes the impact of the devaluation of the national currency, which contributed to the rise in the cost of imported food and the strengthening of the competitive advantage of domestic producers in the domestic market and the export of agricultural products. As a result, despite many negative trends, Russian agriculture has demonstrated high stability and positive dynamics of development, strengthening its position in the world market. Positive factors were inelastic demand for food and significant government support, favorable weather conditions, which contributed to agricultural production and an increase in export volumes. As the analysis has shown, the competitive advantages of the industry manifested themselves not only in comparison with other types of economic activity, but also in strengthening the country's position in the world food market, where the country is becoming one of the leading exporters.
ABSTRACT
This study underscores the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on the agriculture sector and highlights some sound practices to promote agriculture growth, which is essential amid Covid-19. The primary aim of this research is to add the knowledge already available on the topic and sustain the agriculture growth amid of Covid-19 outbreak. The study revolves around its twin research question;what are the challenges to the agriculture sector amid Covid-19 and how challenges may transmute into opportunities? The qualitative methodology is used with content analysis technique to collect the data collection. Content available in diverse formats related to neighbouring characteristics of the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on agriculture. The results of this document enable us to wrap up the purpose of the research. There is a need to improve, promote and digitalize the agriculture sector in all dimensions, that can face and overcome the challenges, which are profound due to enforcement of lockdown after the Covid-19 outbreak. Government policy/role is an important factor to develop any type of strategy or development in this sector, especially in the value addition process. The local government can sustain local food commodities in domestic markets that will directly motivate farmers to focus on their production. No doubt, Covid-19 ascertains so many challenges for every business but the right strategy at right time transform challenges into opportunities. Strategy refers to some interests and priorities from the government side to promote the agriculture sector. This is the need of the time and essential for agriculturalists to stay in business.
ABSTRACT
Intensification of globalization processes and transition of economically developed countries to the post-industrial stage of development determine the modern vector of structural and institutional transformation of the domestic market as a whole and trade in particular. The article is aimed at estimating the determinants of the development of domestic trade in Ukraine. The indicators of internal trade development are analyzed. The regional structure of retail turnover of Ukraine is provided. The risks and threats of foreign trade liberalization for domestic producers are characterized. The share of imported food and non-food products sold through the trade network of enterprises is computed. The commodity structure of imports by wide economic categories is provided. The risks of growing import dependence of the Ukrainian economy in terms of goods for final and intermediate consumption are identified. It is substantiated that one of the important vectors of improving the efficiency of the national economy is structural changes in the sphere of domestic trade. The prospects for the development of domestic trade in Ukraine are generalized, including those caused by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is argued that the coronavirus crisis is one of the key challenges for business in modern conditions, covering all its aspects - from sectoral to global supply chains. The priority of digital transformation of enterprises in order to protect their own position from high technologies of competitors and the opportunity to take advantage of greater functionality of digital business models with their adaptability and performance is determined. It is substantiated that the processes of globalization in the context of the coronavirus crisis have slowed down, which can lead to significant changes in the structure of the market, affect the distribution of online and offline trading. The prospect of further research in this direction is the forecasting of challenges and threats of the post-pandemic development for the domestic market of Ukraine.
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 pandemic presents both a challenge and an opportunity to the Indian shrimp sector. With revitalizing the institutional arrangements and redirecting the focus, the Indian shrimp industry can flourish just by adapting to the needs of the local demand, even when the export prospects are uncertain. This paper takes a historical perspective of Indian shrimp farming and exports and suggests a domestic alternative/supplementary market for Indian farmed shrimp, resulting from COVID-19.
ABSTRACT
In 2013 the Chinese Government introduced the 'One Belt One Road' strategy. This nationwide strategy was aimed at encouraging Chinese businesses to export globally. China's dairy products and its aspirations to fulfil the One Belt One Road strategy, were hindered due to serious food standards breaches and, in consequence, waning international confidence. This paper examines China's dairy industry strategy for export and identifies key initiatives, historical blocks and what steps are being taken to reinforce and encourage the export of its dairy products. The paper looks at 15 representative food producers, a cross-section of the 15,000 members of the Inner Mongolian Food Federation. These representatives were interviewed, using semi-structured interview questions via thematic analysis. The results reveal that many organisations operate without a recognised international certified food standard and, whilst wanting to export their produce, have mainly focused on their domestic markets. The paper concludes with commercial recommendations to stay local or go global.